The US dollar was close to PLN 4.90 around 6:30 p.m. Friday. This is the highest level ever. The Swiss franc once again approached the level of PLN 5. In addition to the weak zloty, the last day of the week saw significant declines in the indices of the Warsaw Stock Exchange.
Representatives from the TMS Brokers Brokerage House drew attention to Friday’s US data. Indicators describing the activity of the industrial and service sectors initially turned out better than expected.
Analysts pointed out that following this data, the US dollar clearly appreciated in value. As noted, the dollar was still at 4.8382 at 3:10 p.m. and at 4.89514 around 6:30 p.m.
The Swiss franc also rose Friday evening. In the CHF/PLN pair, we observed the level of 4.99208.
“Gold Gets a Ricochet”
– Investors have assurances after this week that the Fed will not back down and will pursue even higher interest rates to contain inflation. In turn, this scenario in the euro area is not so certain – it is rather certain that interest rates will not grow as fast as in the US. As a result, we have a strengthening dollar and at the same time a strengthening Swiss franc. In such circumstances, the zloty ricocheted – it weakened against the euro, dollar and franc, although in the case of EUR / PLN the movement was not very strong – it can be said that the whole situation is not too bad – Monika Kurtek Bank Pocztowy chief economist told PAP Biznes.
– For the zloty it will be crucial what inflation data we will see next week and what the expectations will be for MPC decisions. These factors will be crucial for the zloty apart from the fixed element, which is the war in Ukraine and everything related to it. During the period of waiting for the data, there is a chance of stabilization, but we cannot rule out a weakening if global market sentiment deteriorates – she added.
On Friday, September 30, Statistics Netherlands will publish preliminary inflation figures for September of this year.
On Friday evening you had to pay PLN 4.75 for the European currency.
Intervention in the foreign exchange market?
In the afternoon we briefly saw a larger decline in the EUR/PLN pair, at one point the euro was trading at PLN 4.73, which caught the attention of analysts. According to them, the National Bank of Poland could have intervened in the foreign exchange market to strengthen the zloty. “Second Japan in Poland? #PLN #intervention?” – wrote on Twitter Daniel Kostecki, director of the Polish branch of Conooxia Ltd.
Konrad Ryczko, an analyst at DM BOŚ, responded to his submission. “I had the same thought when looking at the broad + FX (currency market – ed.), And PLNa” – wrote Ryczko.
Bank of Japan in action
The Bank of Japan intervened in the foreign exchange market on Thursday to defend the yen. The representatives of Dom Maklerski TMS Brokers indicated that it was the first such step since 1998.
Tavex analyst Tomasz Gessner pointed out that “global sentiment remains weak” on Friday. – Meanwhile, the zloty in our country magically makes up for the previous losses. Such shots, especially without the share of the stock market, usually involved an intervention in the foreign exchange market – he estimated.
Major falls in the Warsaw Stock Exchange
Friday on the WSE brought significant discounts to indices, the WIG20 lost nearly 4 percent and the domestic stock market was one of the weakest in Europe.
– Warsaw led today when it comes to the poor performance of indices, especially the WIG20. For WIG, it was the weakest session since early September, relating to the attempt to recover the broad index that started in the second half of the month and we essentially returned to the starting point i.e. to the support levels from the beginning of the month – said BM BNP Paribas analyst Lukas Cinikas.
The analyst estimated that investor concerns are currently centered on the monetary policy of central banks, especially the Fed. – It is clear that concerns in the market for the coming quarters are focused on this topic; the environment for the equity markets is unfavourable. I believe the short-term outlook for the stock market is negative, Cinikas said.
The WIG20 lost 3.98 percent at the end of Friday’s session. and stood at 1,457.78 points, mWIG40 fell by 2.63%. to 3,678.0 points, sWIG80 fell 1.60 percent. to 16,477.18 points The broad market index WIG lost 3.38 percent. and at the close it was 48,081.16 points.
Central banks make tariff decisions
On Thursday, many European central banks published their monetary policy decisions.
The Bank of England raised key interest rates by 50 bps. to 2.25 percent And such an increase was also expected by the analysts polled by Bloomberg. Five BoE bankers voted in favor of a 50 bp rate hike, 3 for a 75 bp rate hike and 1 for a 25 bp rate hike.
Turkey’s central bank cut its benchmark one-week repo rate to 12%. Analysts polled by the Bloomberg agency expected interest rates to remain unchanged. The decision was made despite inflation exceeding 80%. yoy in the august reading.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) raised interest rates by 0.75 bps. to +0.5 percent The bank did not rule out further rate hikes to stabilize inflation. The SNB also did not rule out intervention on the foreign exchange market.
The Norwegian central bank raised interest rates by 50 bps. to 2.25 percent Norges Bank said in the statement that another rate hike is most likely to take place at the next meeting.
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